If you are not paying attention to the Houthi militias advances in southern and western Yemen, you better do, because it is going to affect your life in the coming days.
The Houthis are now in control of Yemen’s Red Sea Ports and coast, and they are advancing to control some of the islands in Bab al-Mandeb.
Iran’s Role?
In July 2026, when there was a temporary cease fire between Iran and US, there was an intelligence report that the Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corp commanders were flying to Yemen with weapons.
The report rightly predicted that in the coming months, Houthis would launch attacks to take control of the entire areas that Yemen’s has access to the Red Sea, and then they would block the Bab al-Mandeb – just like the way the Strait of Hormuz was blocked by Iran.
The aim, among others, is to give Iran more leverage at the negotiating table with the US by pushing the entire world, particularly Arab countries, to put pressure on the US to concede to Iran’s demands – especially relieving some of the sanctions on Iran.
Will the Houthis succeed in capturing the strategic areas to block Bab al-Mandeb?
Houthis have more or less succeeded in capturing all the Yemen’s ports in the Red Sea. The challenge is the constant air strike from Saudi Arabian Airforce, which is affecting their ability to consolidate their gains. However, Houthis will most likely and eventually do consolidate their gains unless boots are put on the ground to push them back – no one wins a war by air.
Who will put boots on the ground to push back the Houthis?
There is a report that Saudi Arabia sought United State of America (USA) help stop the advances by the Houthis. USA was said to have responded on the negative. In fact, President Trump publicly stated that the “Houthis called us. And they do not want to fight with us. They let us know that they do not want to fight with us.”
Indeed, US can take advantage of the blockade of Bab al-Mandeb against Iran. After all the blockade will certainly have adverse effects on the big Asian economies and European countries. But neither US nor European countries nor the Asian countries are likely to send their soldiers into Yemen to push the Houthis away from Red Sea. These countries are, at best, likely to use Naval bombardment and air strikes to secure their ships.
In fact, it would be unsurprising if they decide to negotiate with Iran (so-called Houthis) for passage based on toll-fee.
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, which were reportedly once used by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to fight the Houthis, are currently embroiled in their own conflict with the Sudanese Army and cannot therefore be deployed to the front line as mercenaries.
The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen is inorganised – about 8 factions – and does not seem to be a good fighting force.
However, Saudi Arabia will not allow Iran through the Houthis to enjoy blockading Bab al-Mandeb, like they are doing with the Strait of Hormuz, and to continue to shut its East-West pipeline. It will exploit every ounce of its diplomatic and military influence.
Will the Mecca Defence Pact be activated?
For now, Saudi Arabia is likely to explore military solutions. In this regard, the Mecca Defence Pact stands out as a key factor for regional security between Türkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.
However, on one hand, while Türkiye will not mind joining the air war, it is not likely going to send its troops into Yemen. Türkiye can support Saudi Arabia with arms and military expert to strike the Houthis. On the other hand, Pakistan would not like to join a conflict indirectly against Iran because of its reliance on Iran for fuel and their geographical proximity.
Why does this concern Africa?
Already, the price of oil is increasing at the global market; if it has not increased in your country, it will soon do so.
Bab al-Mandeb is a strategic location where goods move between markets of Asia, Arabia, Europe and America, before finding their way to Africa and Latin America.
It is the 4th largest shipping route with about 12% of the global trade passing through the area. Its blockades or inaccessibility due to the fighting in the area, therefore, means higher transportation cost through Cape of Good Hope (South Africa).
For the countries in the global south, particularly African countries that rely heavily on imported finished goods and refined oil, we are likely going to experience increases in the prices of almost all commodities.
Kenya, Ethiopia and Egypt are already among the countries worst hit by the oil crisis caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The current Houthi advances will systematically worsen the situation in these countries, and the rest of the African countries.
In fact, with prices of oil steadily increasing across the continent, including in oil-rich countries such as Nigeria and Angola, African countries are at the risk of a deeper energy-induced inflation.
In addition, the Houthi advances are compounding the security situation in the Red Sea and across the Horn of Africa.
The insecurity will worsen the already bad fiscal situation of Egypt by significantly reducing the revenues it generates from the Suez Canal. The conflict will also worsen smuggling and pirate activities in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa.
Furthermore, the Houthi advances and the consequent escalation of the conflict in Yemen are displacing millions of people with thousands fleeing to Djibouti, Somalia, Eretria and Ethiopia.
Somalia and Ethiopia are already grappling with managing millions of internally displaced persons (estimated to be more than three million people in each of the two countries).
Horn of Africa countries have limited social amenities and resources. Therefore, the influx of refugees from Yemen will put more pressure to those limited resources especially water and land.
What are we to do?
My advice, at individual level, is that we should start preparing to pay more for the things we need to use or consume every day.
At institutional level, African countries, collectively and individually, should commence working on developing mechanisms of managing the triple effects of the Houthi advances in Yemen on the continent, which are: energy-induced inflation, insecurity at the Red Sea and influx of refugees.
Ibrahim Lawal Ahmed is a Senior Research Officer with Savannah Centre for Diplomacy, Democracy and Development, an NGO based in Abuja, Nigeria.
Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policy of TRT Afrika.
