At the STRATCOM Summit in Istanbul, Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group cautioned that the escalating US–Israeli confrontation with Iran could spiral into a long, costly conflict with worldwide economic and security consequences. He argued that military pressure alone cannot deliver a sustainable solution, stressing that failed diplomacy and mistrust have left Washington with no clear exit strategy.
Vaez criticized President Trump’s pressure-first approach, saying it doomed negotiations and eroded trust after the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal. He outlined two risky paths ahead: de-escalation, which would require acknowledging Iran’s resilience, or escalation, which could trigger regional retaliation and send oil prices soaring above $250 a barrel.
He warned that Iran’s nuclear knowledge cannot be destroyed militarily, and strikes may only strengthen Tehran’s motivation to pursue weapons. Gulf states, caught between US security guarantees and geographic proximity to Iran, face a strategic impasse.
Vaez concluded that neither side has achieved victory, and a ceasefire though unattractive remains the best option. He also cautioned that the war undermines nuclear non-proliferation, risks encouraging states like North Korea to avoid negotiations, and could accelerate global proliferation trends.
